Actualités récentes

24-10-2018
WORKING PAPER 36: THE SOCIAL EFFICIENCY OF ELECTRICITY TRANSITION POLICIES BASED ON RENEWABLES: WHICH WAYS OF IMPROVEMENT? Click here

26-09-2018
WORKING PAPER 35: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE BID-ASK SPREAD IN THE GERMAN POWER CONTINUOUS MARKET Click here

25-09-2018
WORKING PAPER 34: SYSTEM CONTRIBUTIONS OF RESIDENTIAL BATTERY SYSTEMS: NEW PERSPECTIVES ON PV SELF-CONSUMPTION Click here

12-09-2018
WORKING PAPER 33: ON THE EFFICIENCY OF DECENTRALIZED DECISION-MAKING IN SELF-DISPATCH POWER SYSTEMS Click here

25-04-2018
Energy Policy Publication: ASSESSING CROSS-BORDER INTEGRATION OF CAPACITY MECHANISMS IN COUPLED ELECTRICITY MARKETS Click here

24-11-2017
CONFERENCE ON PUBLIC INTERVENTION IN THE ENERGY TRANSITION: A LEGAL AND ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE ON STATE AID POLICY Programme here

08-11-2017
WORKING PAPER 30: SiSTEM, A MODEL FOR THE SIMULATION OF SHORT-TERM ELECTRICITY MARKETS Click here

24-10-2017
WORKING PAPER 29: ASSESSING CROSS-BORDER INTEGRATION OF CAPACITY MECHANISMS IN COUPLED ELECTRICITY MARKETS Click here

23-10-2017
CONFÉRENCE SUR LES PREMIERS MARCHÉS DE CAPACITÉ EN EUROPE – RETOUR D’EXPÉRIENCE ET ÉVOLUTIONS Click here

27-09-2017
CONFERENCE ON THE FUTURE OF UTILITIES: FROM BANKRUPTCY RISK TO NEW BUSINESS MODELS Click here

25-08-2017
WORKING PAPER 28: THE VALUE OF ELECTRIC ENERGY STORAGE IN ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS WITH HIGH SHARES OF WIND AND SOLAR PV: THE CASE OF FRANCE IN THE ENERGY TRANSITION Click here

27-07-2017
WORKING PAPER 27: A PROSPECTIVE ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF RESIDENTIAL PV SELF-CONSUMPTION WITH BATTERIES AND ITS SYSTEMIC EFFECTS, AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC POLICIES: THE FRENCH CASE IN 2030 Click here

03-05-2017
RAPPORT D’ACTIVITÉS 2012-2017 Click here

03-05-2017
CEEM ACTIVITY REPORT 2012-2017 Click here

+ Plus de news

>> Toutes les actualités

2EME SEANCE DU SEMINAIRE DE RECHERCHES EN ÉCONOMIE DE L’ÉNERGIE DE PARIS-SCIENCES-LETTRES

ANALYSE DES DÉTERMINANTS DES FLUCTUATIONS DES PRIX DU PÉTROLE

Mercredi 13 février 2013, 16h30 - 18h30
Université Paris-Dauphine, Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny,
Salle A 709, 7ème étage, Nouvelle Aile

PROGRAMME ET PRÉSENTATIONS

Le Séminaire de Recherches en Économie de l’Énergie de Paris-Sciences-Lettres est conjointement organisé par le CERNA, LE CGEMP, la Chaire European Electricity Markets, Mines ParisTech et l'Université Paris-Dauphine. Il est animé par François LEVEQUE (CERNA et MINES PARIS TECH) et Dominique FINON (Chaire European Electricity Markets, CNRS-CIRED).

Yannick LE PEN (LEDA-CGEMP, Paris-Dauphine) : Macro Factors in Oil Future Returns
Présentation

Bassam FATTOUH, (Director, Oxford Institute of Economic Studies): The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?
Présentation

La discussion des présentations sera introduite par Denis BABUSIAUX, ancien directeur du Centre d’Economie-Gestion de l’Ecole nationale supérieure du pétrole (IFP) , président de la Section économie de l’AFTP (Association française des Techniciens du pétrole) et membre de l' Académie des Technologies
Présentation

Le séminaire a eu lieu en Anglais.

Summary of the presentations

Yannick LE PEN and Benoît SEVI
We investigate the macro factors that can explain the monthly oil futures return for the NYMEX WTI futures contract on the period 1993-2011. From a new data base of 187 real and nominal macroeconomic variables from developed and emerging countries, we then regress crude oil return on several combinations of the 9 most relevant factors. Our best model explains around 38% of the variability of oil futures return. More interestingly, the factor with the largest influence on crude oil price is related to variables from emerging countries.

Bassam FATTOUH
A popular view is that the surge in the real price of oil during 2003-08 cannot be explained by economic fundamentals, but was caused by the increased financialization of oil futures markets, which in turn allowed speculation to become a major determinant of the spot price of oil. The presentation will review the evidence supporting this view. We identify six strands in the literature and discuss to what extent each sheds light on the role of speculation. We find that the existing evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003, but reflects common economic fundamentals rather than the financialization of oil futures markets.

Pour toute information complémentaire, veuillez prendre contact avec les organisateurs: Monsieur Dominique Finon: finon@centre-cired.fr

et Monsieur François Lévêque: francois.leveque@ensmp.fr