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37TH SESSION OF SEMINARS ON RESEARCH IN ENERGY ECONOMICS AT PARIS-SCIENCES-LETTRES


ÉVALUER LES NATIONAL DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS (NDC) DES PAYS ENGAGÉS DANS L’ACCORD DE PARIS

Monday 09 October 2017, from 16h30 to 18h30
Université Paris-Dauphine
Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny-75116 Paris Cedex
Amphi 5, 2nd Floor


ATTENDANCE IS FREE BUT PRIOR REGISTRATON IS REQUIRED:
Registration


PROGRAMME AND PRESENTATIONS
The Seminar on Research in Energy Economics at Paris-Sciences-Lettres (PSL) is jointly organized by the CERNA (MINES PARIS TECH), the CGEMP (Université Paris-Dauphine), the Chaire European Electricity Markets (Université Paris-Dauphine), and i3 (l’Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation), members of PSL. It is animated by François LEVEQUE (MINES PARIS TECH), Dominique FINON (Chaire European Electricity Markets, CNRS-CIRED) and Patrice GEOFFRON (Director, CGEMP, Université Paris-Dauphine).

Patrick Criqui, Directeur de Recherche CNRS émérite, GAEL (Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory
National Contributions and Deep Decarbonisation Pathways: A Pragmatic Approach of Economic Assessment
Presentation

Prenant le contrepied de l'approche top-down qui prévalait jusqu'à la conférence de Copenhague, l'Accord de Paris est construit sur une approche bottom-up dans laquelle les Etats sont libres de fixer leurs propres objectifs de décarbonation au travers de contributions intentionnelles déterminées nationalement (CIDN). Ce texte présente pour les 13 pays les plus émetteurs de gaz à effet de serre, représentant 75% des émissions mondiales, la valeur carbone implicite à chacune de ces contributions à l'horizon 2030. Celles-ci sont comparées aux valeurs carbone implicites aux niveaux d'émissions nationales de long terme du projet Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDP) qui a permis l'élaboration de trajectoires nationales compatibles avec une trajectoire globale de 2°C. Pour chaque pays, l’écart entre la valeur implicite du carbone des CIDN et celle des niveaux d'émissions du projet DDP est considérable. Cela montre bien que l’ambition des contributions nationales devra être fortement révisée à la hausse dans les prochains cycles de négociation. Nous soulignons également le rôle central que sont amenées à jouer les trajectoires nationales de long terme de décarbonation dans la définition des CIDN pour assurer que les contraintes du moyen terme des CIDN soient cohérentes avec les options du long terme intégrant l'objectif de 2°C. Dans ce contexte, nous prolongeons nos analyses en motivant la nécessité de procéder à un monitoring des NDCs, notamment sous formes de jeux d'indicateurs sectoriels de transition. Certains pays ont déjà mis en œuvre des tableaux de bord, notamment l'Allemagne (rapports Expertenkommission), et le suivi de ces indicateurs est révélateur des succès et difficultés. Un dispositif complet devrait comporter l'analyse des tendances et la comparaison avec les objectifs ainsi que la comparaison de la cohérence des objectifs avec des scénarios.
Note de travail de la Chaire Économie du Climat co-écrite avec Sandrine Mathy (GAEL). En cours de publication en Anglais dans Economics and Policy of Energy and the Environment.


Matthew Winning, Assistant Professor, Institute of Sustainable Resources, University College
Regional Economic Cost of Achieving INDCs under a Range of Low Carbon Technology Assumptions
Presentation

In the paper we determine what the regional costs will be of achieving these national targets compared to a baseline of a business-as-usual degree world with unconstrained emissions and go beyond this by considering what the climate damages would be in each scenario. We then ask what reductions in technology costs would be necessary to offset such GDP losses in the short-run from achieving the INDCs until 2030. We are also interested in what the extra GDP losses would be incurred to achieve the long-run 2oC and 1.5oC targets. Global energy systems models are utilised to consider the implications of policies and scenarios to energy system as a whole. Here we use the TIAM-UCL energy systems model which is a global bottom-up technology rich cost optimisation model. We have added a simplified general equilibrium macroeconomic growth component developed which maximises discounted utility of a single consumer-producer agent. GDP is comprised of consumption, investment and energy system costs. A number of scenarios are undertaken for various emissions budgets related to specific temperature targets and for different assumptions regarding technology diffusion and reductions of low-carbon energy technology costs in important sectors. Results suggest that the economic costs of achieving the INDCs can vary widely from region to region depending on the stringency of the intended targets, the initial energy system and available natural resources. The costs to achieve the INDCs are significant at about 2-3% of global average GDP. However, the GDP impacts of the INDCs are minimal in comparison to those required to meet the 2 or 1.5oC targets, which are around 5%, and over 10%, respectively. In particular, regions which have the largest negative GDP effects tend to be those most dependent upon fossil fuels in their economy, low-carbon resource endowments, and local climate.
Paper co-authored with Paul Ekins, UCL..


For additional information, please contact the organizers:
Patrice Geoffron: patrice.geoffron@dauphine.fr
Dominique Finon: finon@centre-cired.fr
François Lévêque: francois.leveque@ensmp.fr

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