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35TH SESSION OF SEMINARS ON RESEARCH IN ENERGY ECONOMICS AT PARIS-SCIENCES-LETTRES


THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE EU-RUSSIA GAS EXCHANGES

Wednesday 15 March 2017, from 16h30 to 18h30
Université Paris-Dauphine
Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny-75116 Paris Cedex
Amphi 5, 2nd Floor

This seminar will be held both in English and French
.

ATTENDANCE IS FREE BUT PRIOR REGISTRATON IS REQUIRED :
Registration


PROGRAMME AND PRESENTATIONS
The Seminar on Research in Energy Economics at Paris-Sciences-Lettres (PSL) is jointly organized by the CERNA (MINES PARIS TECH), the CGEMP (Université Paris-Dauphine), the Chaire European Electricity Markets (Université Paris-Dauphine), and i3 (l’Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation), members of PSL. It is animated by François LEVEQUE (MINES PARIS TECH), Dominique FINON (Chaire European Electricity Markets, CNRS-CIRED) and Patrice GEOFFRON (Director, CGEMP, Université Paris-Dauphine).

Rolf Golombek, Statistics Norway (Research Department)
The Future of Russian Gas Export
Presentation
For more than one decade, disputes between Russia and Ukraine have triggered Russia to build gas pipelines to Europe that circumvents Ukraine. The Russia-Ukraine disputes, which also affected countries farther west, caused the EU to consider reducing the dependence on Russian natural gas. This in turn gave Russia incentives to target new markets for its gas exports. The current paper examines potential implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the Russian and European natural gas markets. Using a numerical energy market model (LIBEMOD), we find that if Russia stops using the pipelines to and via Ukraine, total gas export from Russia will drop by one third. The impacts on the European gas market are, however, moderate. Similar conclusions are reached if the EU decides to halve its gas imports from Russia. Further, building the planned pipeline to Turkey (“Turkish Stream”) has only modest effects on Russian gas exports, except in the case where trade to and via Ukraine is blocked. Finally, export of Russian gas to Europe is hardly affected by the new Russia-China gas trade agreement. (Working Paper co-written with Finn Roar Aune (Ragnar Frisch Centre, Oslo Univ.), Arild Moe (Fridjoff Nansen Institute), Knut Einar Rosendahl (Norwegian University of Life Sciences) and Hilde Hallre Le Tissier (Ragnar Frisch Centre)).

Catherine Locatelli, Researcher CNRS, GAEL, INRA-CNRS-Université Grenoble-Alpes
EU-Russia Trading Relations: The Challenges of a New Gas Architecture
Gas security is a key factor in the European Union’s energy policy. Contractual relations based on long-term contracts during the 1970s and 1980s led to relative stability in energy trade between the EU and its gas suppliers. But since the mid-1990s, the process of opening up the EU’s gas industries to competition and the desire to create a single gas market has led to an in-depth reorganization of the sector. The EU now intends to redefine the way in which it manages its relations with its main suppliers, such as Russia, by attempting to impose a model based on competition, unbundling of network industries and privatization. Russia does not intend to implement this “EU model” in its gas sector, despite the big changes taking place in its domestic market. An approach based on the preferential use of state instruments conflicts with the multilateralism and principles of competition upheld by the EU. The EU’s normative power is thus in contradiction with the institutional environment of the Russian energy sector. It is therefore unlikely that energy relations between the EU and Russia will be structured solely on standards stemming from international rules and institutions.
(Paper published in: European Journal of Law and Economics, April 2015. Vol. 39, Issue 2, pp.313-329; DOI: 10.1007/s10657-013-9423-y).


For additional information, please contact the organizers:
Dominique Finon: finon@centre-cired.fr
François Lévêque: francois.leveque@ensmp.fr
And Patrice Geoffron: patrice.geoffron@dauphine.fr

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